Hillary After Voting
Tuesday, November 4th, 2008Drudge Report Has this on his front page as “Hillary Politicking Inside NY Polling Area, 5 Feet From Booths”
But, you know, he’s not biasedor anything…
Hi, I’m Nine, and I used to be a Republican and a Catholic. Now I’m an American. LOC isn’t so much of a statement about my political leanings as it is about how much of a wierdo I can be. Read more...
Drudge Report Has this on his front page as “Hillary Politicking Inside NY Polling Area, 5 Feet From Booths”
But, you know, he’s not biasedor anything…
I got up early this morning and headed to the polls as they opened, which was a bad idea. The line circled the building three times. By Noon the line had dwindled significantly, and I was in and out of there in 40 minutes. There was no trouble at my polling place, save for the little girl who had mislaid her Game Boy while her mother voted.
One thing I noticed while I was in line was that the F-K line and L-R was what was causing the bottleneck. A-E and S-Z were completely empty. The lady running the show actually got mad at the folks at the table for not getting folks up to the line.
I know there are reports of folks here in Hampton Roads having trouble. I drove by three other polling places here while I was out, and I have to say in the 20 years since I started voting, I have never seen these kinds of lines for elections. Buffett concerts, Star Wars Movies, and iPhones, Sure! Never for an election.
In the end, it’s alright. I voted. Please make sure you do too.
Braxton Hicks here, and I’m here in the…well, It’s not even a town. It’s a little squirrel hole called Dixville Notch, in the State Of New Hampshire. Nine sent me up here to document the results of the 75 freaks of nature that cast their votes at midnight.
Look folks, it’s not that I don’t appreciate the dedication of the small town of syrup farmers that come out at midnight on Election Day to cast their votes, but I swear to God that I’ve fallen into a Newhart inspired acid trip. Every damn one of these idiots look like Larry, Darryl or Darryl. By itself, that’s not much of a problem. What IS a problem, what is causing me to want to jam a grapefruit spoon in my earholes, is that unlike Larry, Darryl, and Darryl, All of them talk. A lot. Politics is a lot like baseball at this time of year for New Hampshire people, and the Season starts in January, and leads right up through Election Day. Knowing this, and having become familiar with the ear splitting decibel level at which these squirrel shankers tend to…uh…DISCUSS things, I’m pretty sure that I would have taken my own life with the aid of a piano string, a quart of Rocky Road, and an eight by ten glossy of Elvis Presley.
Just tell them I said…eskimo.
ONe thing I notice about folks from up North that no one else on the planet does, is their ability to do two things at the same time. I was just here having dinner at the Local Co-op, and I heard some Floyd R. Turbo wannabe say that he was going to “take and go” to the IGA before heading home. Then he said he was gonna “Take and do” some woodwork. Following that logic, he would then take and crap in the john, before taking and going to bed, where he might take and bone the wife, before taking and falling asleep.
I think I’m going to take and go insane.
The parade of Genetic bouillabaisse balloting has begun, all overseen by a man in a bowtie staind by the ballot box like he actually has a live squirrel in his ass. I’m looking at this tiny little hovel, and I can safely say that everyone knows everyone here. Possibly biblically.
ewwwwww.
First results are forthcoming, and while we’re waiting, I’d just like to say that for complete election coverage, join Nine and The Pungonians starting at 7pm tomorrow night for live election coverage at locnetwork.com
Results. McCain 6 votes. Nader scratch. Barack Obama, 15 votes.
Nine….YOU SENT ME UP HERE FOR 21 VOTES! I’M GONNA TAKE AND KI…
Damn. NOW THEY HAVE ME DOING IT!!! NINE, YOU ASSHOLE!
I have to say, with the importance of this election, I think exit polls are going to do nothing but cause trouble. So does the McCain campaign, and it’s one of the very few places where we agree.
From Drudge:
From: Bill McInturff
Subject: Reading the Exit Polls
Date: November 3, 2008
As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.
However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.
Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.
2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.
3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.
4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.
5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.
After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.
“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.
We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.
In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.
The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.
So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.
The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.
Conclusions
Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.
It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.
I remember very clearly the wailing and gnashing of teeth that took place after 2004. So heed that warning, folks. Exit polls are going to be useless, and while I hate to say it, they will be useless for one reason: Barack Obama.
One of these days, and it’s my sincere wish that it won’t be far off, we can dispense with petty things like race, gender, sexual orientation, and the simple pleasure of screwing with the newsguy. But, here in 2008, we haven’t put away our childish things. So, expect that we will act as a child, and for the exit polls, we will speak as a child.
I’m calling on the networks to not give people the opportunity to lie, and I’m calling on the networks to not call states until it is beyond the mathematical possibility for the losing candidate in a state to come from behind. I’m not telling tales out of school when we know there is much more than an election at stake here. We’re poking sticks at our national shames. Racism and Voter Apathy are the Albatrosses hanging from the neck of the USS United States, and if this election is allowed to degerate into another nightmare, this ship will be in danger of foundering. No matrer who the victor is, it’s imperative that YOU, the media, get this right this time. There must be no doubt, no bias, and no attempt to sway a voter that has not yet cast a ballot. Exit polls do that, you know. Banish them. I’m sure you can find other things to talk about while actual results come in. Supposedly, you’re good at that.
I know just enough about the Stock Market to be dangerous, so take this with a grain of salt, and by all means consult your financial advisor for professional advice in your own special situation.
What I’m noticing here in the last few days is a pretty much flat market, and a declining volume. What I get form that is that the market is waiting for tomorrow’s results. Here’s my guess on it. We all pretty much expect Obama is the next President. I think Wednesday Morning you’ll see volume resume. The outcome of the Senate race is going to be the key indicator here. The market is not too keen on a Democrat controlled Executive AND Legislature. We’ll see a selloff if that happens, and I don’t think we need that right now. As with all things lately, 60 is the magic number. If the Dems don’t make 60 in the Senate, we should (weasel word alert) be cool. \
If we have another clusterfuck of an election like 2000, all bets are off on the market.
My advice, don’t play the game until you see what the new rules are on Wednesday.
I wrote this yesterday and debated whether to record it or leave it as a post. I originally decided on leaving it as a post, because I wasn’t sure I could get through it without blowing my kidney across the room.
So, to the many sadists out there that have demanded that I record it anyway, thanks. I now have but one kidney to give for my country, but I gave it laughing my ass off.
Audio Version Of The Guide
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